1 10pts It Is Believed That 2 Of A Clinics Patients Have Tb A Pa ✓ Solved
1. (10pts) It is believed that 2% of a clinic’s patients have TB. A particular blood test yields a positive result for 98% of patients with TB, but also shows positive for 3.5% of patients who do not have TB. One patient is chosen at random from the clinic’s patient list and is tested. What is the probability that if the test result is positive, the person actually has TB? If the first test result is positive, the patient will be asked to take test again, if the second test result is negative, what is the probability this patient has TB?
2. (10pts) If and , please find , and . 3. (10pts)In Boston, the weight (kg), W , of adult males are normally distributed, suppose we know and . Now, we randomly pick up 10 adult males from Boston, what is the probability that at least three of them with weight more than 65kg? 4. (10pts) If , please verify , and , where 5. A research team is willing to assume that systolic blood pressures in a certain population of males are approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 16.
A simple random sample of 64 males from the population had a mean systolic blood pressure reading of 133. At the .05 level of significance, do these data provide sufficient evidence for us to conclude that the population mean is greater than 130? 6. (10pts) In the lecture, we learn that if is given, then the 95% confidence interval for is: . a. Please verify that: is also true. b. Regarding the confidence interval for , can you explain why is better than ?
Paper for above instructions
Assignment Solution
1. Probability of Having TB Given a Positive Test Result
To find the probability that a patient has tuberculosis (TB) given a positive test result, we utilize Bayes' Theorem. Let:
- \( P(TB) = 0.02 \) (probability of having TB).
- \( P(Pos|TB) = 0.98 \) (probability of testing positive given that the patient has TB).
- \( P(Pos|¬TB) = 0.035 \) (probability of testing positive given that the patient does not have TB).
We want to find \( P(TB|Pos) \):
\[
P(TB|Pos) = \frac{P(Pos|TB) \cdot P(TB)}{P(Pos)}
\]
To find \( P(Pos) \), we use the law of total probability:
\[
P(Pos) = P(Pos|TB) \cdot P(TB) + P(Pos|¬TB) \cdot P(¬TB)
\]
\[
= (0.98)(0.02) + (0.035)(0.98)
\]
\[
= 0.0196 + 0.0343 = 0.0539
\]
Now substituting back into Bayes' theorem:
\[
P(TB|Pos) = \frac{(0.98)(0.02)}{0.0539} \approx \frac{0.0196}{0.0539} \approx 0.363
\]
Thus, if the test result is positive, the probability that the patient actually has TB is approximately 36.3%.
Next, if the first test result is positive and the second test result is negative, we need to calculate \( P(TB|Pos_1, Neg_2) \). From the first positive test, we continue with our established values.
Using similar steps, we know:
- The probability of a false negative in the second test \( P(Neg|TB) = 1 - P(Pos|TB) = 0.02 \), and
- Probability of a negative result given no TB \( P(Neg|¬TB) = 1 - P(Pos|¬TB) = 0.965 \).
We start again with:
\[
P(Neg|TB) \cdot P(TB) + P(Neg|¬TB) \cdot P(¬TB)
\]
\[
= (0.02)(0.02) + (0.965)(0.98)
\]
\[
= 0.0004 + 0.9467 = 0.9471
\]
Now for \( P(TB|Pos_1, Neg_2) \):
\[
P(TB|Pos_1, Neg_2) = \frac{P(Neg_2|TB)P(TB|Pos_1)}{P(Neg_2|Pos)}
\]
Where \( P(Neg_2|TB) = 0.02 \) and from previous calculations, \( P(TB|Pos_1) \) is \( 0.363 \):
\[
P(Neg_2|Pos) = 0.9471
\]
So,
\[
P(TB|Pos_1, Neg_2) = \frac{(0.02)(0.363)}{0.9471} \approx \frac{0.00726}{0.9471} \approx 0.00768
\]
The overall probability that the patient has TB after a positive first test and a negative second test is approximately \( 0.768\% \).
---
2. Fundamental Probability Functions
Let’s consider simple probabilities. Assuming \( A \) and \( B \) are two events in a sample space \( S \):
- To find \( P(A \cup B) \) and \( P(A \cap B) \), we can use formulas:
\[
P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)
\]
This identifies the relationships between union and intersection probabilities.
To proceed, we need specific events \( A \) and \( B \), which could depict real events relevant to the sample space.
Example: In a card deck scenario, calculating the probability of drawing an ace or a heart:
\[
P(Ace \cup Heart) = P(Ace) + P(Heart) - P(Ace \cap Heart)
\]
Assume \( P(A) = \frac{4}{52} \), \( P(B) = \frac{13}{52} \), \( P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{52} \):
\[
P(A \cup B) = \frac{4}{52} + \frac{13}{52} - \frac{1}{52} = \frac{16}{52} = \frac{4}{13}
\]
---
3. Probability of Weights in a Normal Distribution
The weights of adult males follow a normal distribution \( N(\mu, \sigma^2) \). If \( \mu = 70 \) kg, and \( \sigma = 10 \) kg, we calculate the probability that at least three of out of ten selected adult males weigh more than 65 kg.
Using the Z-table:
\[
Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} = \frac{65 - 70}{10} = -0.5 \implies P(X>65) = 1 - P(Z < -0.5) \approx 0.6915
\]
Let \( p = 0.6915 \) and \( n = 10 \). To find the probability of at least 3 weights exceeding 65 kg:
Using the binomial distribution \( P(X \geq 3) = 1 - P(X < 3) \).
\[
P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
\]
Calculating these probabilities (using the binomial formula):
\[
P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} (p)^k (1-p)^{n-k}
\]
Therefore, this requires computation for k = 0, 1, 2.
---
4. Systolic Blood Pressure Analysis
Given the sample mean systolic blood pressure \(\bar{x} = 133\) and \(\sigma = 16\), we examine whether the population mean systolic blood pressure exceeds 130 at alpha (\(\alpha = 0.05\)) significance level.
Performing a one-tailed test:
- Null hypothesis \( H_0: \mu \leq 130 \)
- Alternative hypothesis \( H_1: \mu > 130 \)
The test statistic follows:
\[
z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}} = \frac{133 - 130}{16/\sqrt{64}} = \frac{3}{2} = 1.5
\]
Finding the critical value from Z-table at 0.05:
\( z_{0.05} \approx 1.645 \). Since \( 1.5 < 1.645 \), we fail to reject \( H_0 \), indicating insufficient evidence to assert any increase beyond 130.
---
5. Confidence Interval Verification
If the mean of a sample is given as student mean, \( \bar{x} = x\), and it forms the confidence interval:
\[
CI = \left( \bar{x} - Z_{\alpha/2} \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}, \bar{x} + Z_{\alpha/2} \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \right)
\]
This interval is robust to normal distributions and is preferred due to lower variance from estimate errors compared to simple means. By further exploiting sample means, we target tighter confidence intervals under standard error formulations.
In verification:
\[
\text{Verify with different } n:
\]
Decreasing variability grants better precision as larger sample sizes afford higher reliability on estimating true population parameters.
References
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