Please answer the question completely. Thanks Assume that in the future we will
ID: 110451 • Letter: P
Question
Please answer the question completely. Thanks
Assume that in the future we will e able to predict with a given probability when and where a large damaging earthquake will occur. If the probability that the earthquake will occur on a given date is quite low, say 10 percent, should the general public be informed of the forecast? Should we wait until a 50 percent confidence or even a 90 percent confidence is assured? Does the length of time between the forecast and the event have any bearing on your answers?
Explanation / Answer
INTRODUCTION:
Earthquakesare the sudden shock of the earth's surface. In other words Earthquake is considered as natural means of releasing stress built in the deeper layers of earth's surface. There are about 20 tectonic plates along earth's surface which movie continuously and slowly, when suddenly these plates slide one another or push up against each other creating enormous stress which results in Earthquake.
EXPLANATION:
The power of an earthquake is measured using a SEISMOMETER and the strength, magnitude are measured on a scale of 1-10 using RICHTER SCALE. While the Earthquake measuring 3-5 is considered as minor, and 5-7 is moderate and the Earthquake ranging over 7 is devastating. Over years scientists have been working on different ways for predicting earthquakes but unfortunately none have been successful till date. Lets hope we will be able to predict Earthquakes in future.
As mentioned in the question let's assume the probability of an earthquake on a scale of 1-100 percentage. If we predict that Earthquake will be quite low say 10 percent, but still the general public should be given information. Because we all know how destructive an earthquake could really be, so in my opinion it is better to alert people in advance and alert the state government to shift the people from Earthquake expected area. Because how advanced may be the technology but I personally think that even the Earthquake is predicted low it's our responsibility to alert people and save their lives. Also the government should take responsibility by not creating panic in the people and intimate them it's just a low range Earthquake so it's better to vacate and move to a new place. If the Earthquake affect was more than expected then who is responsible for the damage done? The government or the technology which we use to predict Earthquakes?
CONCLUSION:
Even if the predicted Earthquake is quite low but still the general public should be informed because we cannot totally trust the technology that predict Earthquake. The Earthquake may cause severe damage than expected, so it is better to alert people even if the predicted Earthquake is lowor high range.