The following applies to questions 1-2 below. Consider the ratio form of Bayes\'
ID: 1108873 • Letter: T
Question
The following applies to questions 1-2 below. Consider the ratio form of Bayes' Theorem, i.e., for disjoint hypotheses Ho and Hi, and observed data D 1. What errorn reasonig olves ignoring p(DIH when estimating ? A. Conservatism B. Base rate neglect C. Pseudodiagnosticity D. The gambler's fallacy E. Plasticity p(Ho) p(H1) (Ho|D) 2. What error in reasoning involves treating general case? as being approximately equal to P{ XY in the A. Conservatism B. Plasticity C. The gambler's fallacy D. Censoring E. Base rate neglectExplanation / Answer
1. Option D.
Gambler's Fallacy.
The Gambler's Fallacy is generally assuming that the odds of a single truely random event are affected in any way by previous iterations of the same or other truly random event.
2. Option E.
Base Rate Neglect.
Bease rate neglect is a cognitive error whereby too little weight is placed on the base (original) rate of possibility.
3. Option D.
4. Option A.
Rational Behaviour.