The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on Au
ID: 2701237 • Letter: T
Question
The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 1996. The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December 1996), and Carlson is now involved in a dispute with its insurance company concerning the amount of lost sales during the time the store was closed. Two key issues must be resolved: (1) the amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not struck; and (2) whether Carlson is entitled to any compensation for excess sales from increased business activity after the storm. More than $8 billion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at department stores and numerous other businesses.
Table 1 Sales for Carlson Department Store, September 1992 Through August 1996
Month
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
January
1.45
2.31
2.31
2.56
February
1.80
1.89
1.99
2.28
March
2.03
2.02
2.42
2.69
April
1.99
2.23
2.45
2.48
May
2.32
2.39
2.57
2.73
June
2.20
2.14
2.42
2.37
July
2.13
2.27
2.40
2.31
August
2.43
2.21
2.50
2.23
September
1.71
1.90
1.89
2.09
October
1.90
2.13
2.29
2.54
November
2.74
2.56
2.83
2.97
December
4.20
4.16
4.04
4.35
Table 1 shows the sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm. The U.S. Department of Commerce also published total sales for the 48 months preceding the storm for all department stores in the county, as well as the total sales in the county for the four months the Carlson Department Store was closed. Table 2 shows these data. Management has asked you to analyze these data and develop estimates of the lost sales at the Carlson Department Store for the months of September through December 1996. Management also has asked you to determine whether a case can be made for excess storm-related sales during the same period. Carlson is entitled to compensation for excess sales it would have earned in addition to ordinary sales.
Table 2 Department Store Sales for the County, September 1992 Through August 1996
Month
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
January
46.8
46.8
43.8
48.0
February
48.0
48.6
45.6
51.6
March
60.0
59.4
57.6
57.6
April
57.6
58.2
53.4
58.2
May
61.8
60.6
56.4
60.0
June
58.2
55.2
52.8
57.0
July
56.4
51.0
54.0
57.6
August
63.0
58.8
60.6
61.8
September
55.8
57.6
49.8
47.4
69.0
October
56.4
53.4
54.6
54.6
75.0
November
71.4
71.4
65.4
67.8
85.2
December
117.6
114.0
102.0
100.2
121.8
Managerial Report
Prepare a report for the management of the Carlson Department Store that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
Month
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
January
1.45
2.31
2.31
2.56
February
1.80
1.89
1.99
2.28
March
2.03
2.02
2.42
2.69
April
1.99
2.23
2.45
2.48
May
2.32
2.39
2.57
2.73
June
2.20
2.14
2.42
2.37
July
2.13
2.27
2.40
2.31
August
2.43
2.21
2.50
2.23
September
1.71
1.90
1.89
2.09
October
1.90
2.13
2.29
2.54
November
2.74
2.56
2.83
2.97
December
4.20
4.16
4.04
4.35
Explanation / Answer
Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 4
Countywide Department Stores Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996 5
Choosing the appropriate forecasting method 6
Trend and Seasonal Components in Forecasting 7
An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store 10
Conclusion 10
Introduction
The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 1996. The store was closed for four months (September 1996 through December 1996) causing our sales drop to $0. The task of this report is to analyze sales in our department store in past 48 months and develop estimates of the lost sales at the Carlson Department Store for the months of September through December 1996.
The Carlson Department Store is involved in a dispute with insurance company concerning the amount of lost sales during the time the store was closed. Two key issues must be resolved:
1) The amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not struck, and
2) Whether Carlson is entitled to any compensation for excess sales from increased business activity after the storm. More than $8 billion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at department stores and numerous other businesses.
Carlson Department Store Sales data for September 1992 through August 1996
Certain conditions should be met by any good forecast. A good forecast should usually be based on adequate knowledge of the relevant past. With our company %u2013 The Carlson Department Store %u2013 we have the sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm available. This amount of historical data fulfills the requirement for the volume of relevant data.