Part 3: For this problem, use the Sales 1 variable to answer following questions
ID: 3006191 • Letter: P
Question
Part 3: For this problem, use the Sales 1 variable to answer following questions
a. What are the forecast for June of year 2015 using Holt’s method with .
b. Use Solver to estimate the optimal value of smoothing constants (alpha and beta) that minimize MSE and evaluate the MSE based on the optimal value of .
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
d. Prepare a line graph compare the predictions from this method with the optimal value of smoothing constants alpha and beta against the original data (sales 1).
Can you apply this forecasting method to the third variable, Sales 2 (Explain)?
Part 4: For this problem, use the Sales 2 variable to answer following questions
a. What are the forecasts for July of year 2015 using Seasonality without trend?
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
b. What are the forecasts for July of year 2015 using Seasonality with trend?
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
c. Prepare a line graph compare the predictions from this method with the optimal value of smoothing constants (alpha, beta, and gamma ) against the original data (sales 2).
d. Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method and which of the two do you believe?
Monthly sales data Month Sales1 Sales2 Jan-11 1368 1024 Feb-11 1380 928 Mar-11 1406 1442 Apr-11 1439 1371 May-11 1474 1536 Jun-11 1499 2004 Jul-11 1528 1854 Aug-11 1541 1951 Sep-11 1570 1516 Oct-11 1608 1642 Nov-11 1632 1166 Dec-11 1661 1106 Jan-12 1701 1189 Feb-12 1732 1209 Mar-12 1758 1754 Apr-12 1774 1843 May-12 1808 1769 Jun-12 1827 2207 Jul-12 1844 2471 Aug-12 1871 2288 Sep-12 1898 1867 Oct-12 1908 1980 Nov-12 1934 1418 Dec-12 1968 1333 Jan-13 1986 1333 Feb-13 2021 1370 Mar-13 2056 2142 Apr-13 2095 2138 May-13 2122 2078 Jun-13 2143 2960 Jul-13 2168 2616 Aug-13 2207 2861 Sep-13 2226 2237 Oct-13 2255 2225 Nov-13 2283 1590 Dec-13 2309 1659 Jan-14 2338 1613 Feb-14 2382 1605 Mar-14 2400 2349 Apr-14 2452 2468 May-14 2486 2532 Jun-14 2522 3127 Jul-14 2547 3288 Aug-14 2570 3285 Sep-14 2611 2485 Oct-14 2628 2723 Nov-14 2662 1835 Dec-14 2696 1894 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15Explanation / Answer
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