In the 1980s in Canada, 52% of adult males smoked. It was estimated that male sm
ID: 3040392 • Letter: I
Question
In the 1980s in Canada, 52% of adult males smoked. It was estimated that male smokers had a lifetime probability of 17.2% of developing lung cancer, whereas a nonsmoker had a 1.3% chance of getting lung cancer during his life.
a.What is the conditional probability of a Canadian man getting cancer, given that he smoked in the 1980s?
b.Calculate the probability that a Canadian man in the 1980s both smoked and eventually developed lung cancer.
c.Given that a Canadian man is known to have lung cancer, calculate the probability that he smoked in the 1980s.
Explanation / Answer
a)
P(cancer|smoked) = 0.172
b)
P(smoked and cancer) = P(cancer|smoked) * P(smoked) = 0.172 * 0.52 = 0.08944
c)
P(smoked|cancer) = P(smoked and cancer)/P(cancer) =0.08944 /(0.08944 + (1-0.52 ) * 0.013))
=0.934782
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