The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table
ID: 3042044 • Letter: T
Question
The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table below.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
55
6
50
11
60
2
57
7
57
12
61
3
60
8
52
13
68
4
59
9
53
14
63
5
58
10
73
15
67
Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations
What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with = 0.7?
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Question 212 pts
The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table below.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
55
6
50
11
60
2
57
7
57
12
61
3
60
8
52
13
68
4
59
9
53
14
63
5
58
10
73
15
67
Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations
Assume that the control limits for the tracking signal are ±4. What can be concluded about the quality of the forecasts using = 0.30 or = 0.70?
Both forecasts are unbiased. The forecasts using alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.7 both produce no tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
Both forecasts are biased. The forecasts using alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.7 both produce at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
The forecast using alpha = 0.3 is unbiased. The forecast using alpha = 0.3 produces no tracking signals that are outside the tracking signal limits. The forecast using 0.7 is biased since it produces at least one tracking signal that is outside the tracking signal limits.
The forecast using alpha = 0.3 is biased. The forecast using alpha = 0.3 produces at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits. The forecast using alpha = 0.7 is unbiased and produces no tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
55
6
50
11
60
2
57
7
57
12
61
3
60
8
52
13
68
4
59
9
53
14
63
5
58
10
73
15
67
Explanation / Answer
Here as per alpha = 0.7, the forcast values for week 15 is can be noticed from the given table
so option B is correct as it is Greater than 3.00 but less than or equal to 5.00
Here tracking signal value = 67 - 63.90 = 3.10
For question 212
HEre the forecasted estimates are given below.
So here error is absolute error. and as the tracking signal is +- 4 so we can say for alpha = 0.3, there are 4 tracking signal but for alpha = 0.7, there are 5 tracking signal.
Option B is correct as The forecasts using alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.7 both produce at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
Week Demand Forecast (alpha = 0.7) 1 55 #N/A 2 57 55 3 60 56.4 4 59 58.92 5 58 58.976 6 50 58.2928 7 57 52.48784 8 52 55.64635 9 53 53.09391 10 73 53.02817 11 60 67.00845 12 61 62.10254 13 68 61.33076 14 63 65.99923 15 67 63.89977