Political Science Logistic Regression Consider a 60 year old white female ......

Question

Political Science

Logistic Regression

Consider a 60 year old white female ......... What is the predicted probability that this person will vote?

A. 0.905

B. 0.9501

C. 0.915

D. 0.951

Question 4: Exercise 14-12, page 151. Logistic Regression. Please answer: Exercise 14-12: "g" on page 153. Consider a 60 year old white femal. What is the predicted probability that this person will vote? SRM TABLE 14-11 Logistic Regression of Turnout on Advertising Recal and Other Variables Variable Negative ad comment: 1-yes, 0 = no Positive ad comment: 1 = yes, 0 = no Newspaper political news indexa Age in years Campaign interest: 1 = somewhat, 0 = otherwise Campaign interest: 1-very much, 0-otherwise Gender: 1 = female, 0 = male Time from interview to election (in days) Partial Coefficient 2005 2652 0337 0295 3824 .0460 3195 -0053 Standard Error 1792 2806 0113 0054 1672 3260 1533 0043 Independent leaner 1independents who lean toward a party 8183 7279 1.7830 1962 4.4223 2647 2543 2935 2057 4223 0 = otherwise Weak partisan-b-weak partisan, 0-all others Strong partisan1-strong partisan, 0-all others Race: 1 = white, 0-nonwhite Constant N: 1.373 Percentage of respondents correctly predicted 81%, based on these variables plus others not in this table. Coded on scale from 0 to 28 with 28 being highest interest Pure independent treated as reference category 0.905 O 0.9501 O 0.915 0.951

Explanation / Answer

Here the probability for a 60 year white female is

as the given distributionis logistic regression

Pr( 60 year old white female) = 1/ [1 + exp{-(60 * 0.0295 + 0.3195 + 0.1962)} ] = 1/ [ 1 + exp(-2.2857)] = 0.906

Option A is correct.

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