This Year\'s Next ear\'s This Year\'s Year\'s Year Unemployment Unemployment Yea
ID: 3058055 • Letter: T
Question
This Year's Next ear's This Year's Year's Year Unemployment Unemployment Year Unemployment Unemployment 1985 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 7.0 1999 7.2 7.0 6.2 2001 4.7 5.8 5.0 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 S.I 7.5 2006 4.6 6.1 5.6 4.6 61 5.6 2008 9.6 2010 2011 9.3 9.6 8.9 1997 4.9 8.1 1998 Source: Bureau ef Labor Statistics 10. Use Excel to create a scatterplot of next years unemployment (y) versus this year's unemployment (x). Label your axes and title the graph. Use Excel to compute the least-squares line for predicting next years unemployment from this year's unemployment. Plot the line on the scatterplot and include the equation of the line. Print the scatterplot. 11. Predict next year's unemployment if this year's unemployment is 5.0%. y=a+bx 12. Compute the correlation coefficient between this year's unemployment and next year's unemployment 13. What proportion of the variance in next year's unemployment is explained by this year's unemployment? 03/014-8l.mem 14. Which of the three models do you think provides the best prediction of unemployment, the one using inflation in the same year, the one using inflation in the previous year, or the one using unemployment in the previous year? Explain your answer. 15. The U.S. economy was in recession during parts of 1990 and 1991, most of 2001, and from December 2007 through June 2009. Compute the residuals for the least-squares line found in question 10. During times of recession, does the least-squares line predict the following years unemployment well? Does it tend to overpredict or underpredict?Explanation / Answer
This Year's Next ear's This Year's Year's Year Unemployment Unemployment Year Unemployment Unemployment 1985 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 7.0 1999 7.2 7.0 6.2 2001 4.7 5.8 5.0 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 S.I 7.5 2006 4.6 6.1 5.6 4.6 61 5.6 2008 9.6 2010 2011 9.3 9.6 8.9 1997 4.9 8.1 1998 Source: Bureau ef Labor Statistics 10. Use Excel to create a scatterplot of next years unemployment (y) versus this year's unemployment (x). Label your axes and title the graph. Use Excel to compute the least-squares line for predicting next years unemployment from this year's unemployment. Plot the line on the scatterplot and include the equation of the line. Print the scatterplot. 11. Predict next year's unemployment if this year's unemployment is 5.0%. y=a+bx 12. Compute the correlation coefficient between this year's unemployment and next year's unemployment 13. What proportion of the variance in next year's unemployment is explained by this year's unemployment? 03/014-8l.mem 14. Which of the three models do you think provides the best prediction of unemployment, the one using inflation in the same year, the one using inflation in the previous year, or the one using unemployment in the previous year? Explain your answer. 15. The U.S. economy was in recession during parts of 1990 and 1991, most of 2001, and from December 2007 through June 2009. Compute the residuals for the least-squares line found in question 10. During times of recession, does the least-squares line predict the following years unemployment well? Does it tend to overpredict or underpredict?