Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in the given table. Week Sales (100
ID: 3143996 • Letter: R
Question
Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in the given table. Week Sales (1000s of gallons) 1 18 2 22 3 19 4 23 5 17 6 15 7 21 8 18 9 21 10 21 11 15 12 23 a. Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series. Round your answers to two decimal places. Week Sales 4-Week Moving Average 5-Week Moving Average 1 18 2 22 3 19 4 23 5 17 6 15 7 21 8 18 9 21 10 21 11 15 12 23 b. Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving average forecasts. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to two decimal places. MSE for four-week moving average = MSE for five-week moving average = c. What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average computation? Recall that MSE for the three-week moving average is 12.21.
Explanation / Answer
a) MSE for 4-week = 13.53906
b)MSE for 5-week = 10.13714
c) We choose 5-week as its MSE is least
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Week Sales 4 week 5-week 1 18 2 22 3 19 4 23 5 17 20.5 12.25 6 15 20.25 27.5625 19.8 23.04 7 21 18.5 6.25 19.2 3.24 8 18 19 1 19 1 9 21 17.75 10.5625 18.8 4.84 10 21 18.75 5.0625 18.4 6.76 11 15 20.25 27.5625 19.2 17.64 12 23 18.75 18.0625 19.2 14.44 MSE 13.53906 10.13714