Bob and Bill are two weather forecasters for AccurateWeather. Bob is a veteran f
ID: 3145459 • Letter: B
Question
Bob and Bill are two weather forecasters for AccurateWeather. Bob is a veteran forecaster, while Bill is fresh out of school. The following are the records (in number of predictions) on both forecasters' ability to predict whether it will rain in the next 24 h a. Which forecaster would you hire? Why? b. Who is a more conservative forecaster? Why? c. How would a conservative versus a risky forecaster be beneficial for different geographic regions? True result True result Bob said: Rain No rain Bill said: Rain No rain Rain No rain 268 320 56 5,318 Rain No rain 100 21 138 349Explanation / Answer
a.
Bob Accuracy = (TP+TN)/Total = (268+5318)/(268+56+320+5318) = 94%
Bill Accuracy = (TP+TN)/Total = (100+349)/(100+138+21+349) = 74%
Bob' Precision = TP/Total predicted Rain = 268/(268+56) = 83%
Bill' Precision = TP/Total predicted Rain = 100/(100+138) = 42%
so Bob is more conservative, since he predicted less rain instances and they got correct while Bill predicted very high no. of instances and at most of these instances it didnt rain.
Bob' Recall = TP/Total actual Rain = 268/(268+320) = 46%
Bill' Recall = TP/Total actual Rain = 100/(100+21) = 83%
going by accuracy, bob should be hired.
b.
so Bob is more conservative, since he predicted less rain instances and they got correct but he missed out on so many rain instances (almost 50%) while Bill predicted very high no. of instances and at most of these instances it didnt rain.
c.
Conservative forecaster would be better suited for the geographies where chances of rain has been low in past and risk taker would be better where recently rainfall has increased to catch more rain instances correct.