Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 Value 14 13 15 15 14 Wha
ID: 3157432 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5
Value 14 13 15 15 14
What is the forecast for week 4 using the three-week moving average?
What is the absoluter error of the forecast for week 4 computed by the use of the three-week moving average?
What is the forecast for week 4 using the weighted three-week moving average with a weight of 3/6 to the most recent observation, 2/6 to the second most recent observation, and 1/6 to the third most recent observation?
What is absolute error of the forecast for week 4 using the weighted three-week moving average with a weight of 3/6 to the most recent observation, 2/6 to the second most recent observation, and 1/6 to the third most recent observation?
What is the forecast for week 4 using the exponential smoothing method with a smoothing constant (alpha) of 0.5?
Explanation / Answer
so the forecast is 14.5
absoluteerror is 15-14.5=0.5
so the estimate is 14.25.
week value 3 yearly moving total moving average 1 14 2 13 42 14 3 15 43 14.33333 4 15 44 14.66667 5 14