Following are time-series data for eight different periods. Use exponential smoo
ID: 3172611 • Letter: F
Question
Following are time-series data for eight different periods. Use exponential smoothing to forecast the values for periods 3 through 8. Use the value for the first period as the forecast for the second period. Compute forecasts using two different values of alpha, =.1 and =.8 . Compute the errors for each forecast and compare the errors produced by using the two different exponential smoothing constants.
LINK TO TEXT
Following are time-series data for eight different periods. Use exponential smoothing to forecast the values for periods 3 through 8. Use the value for the first period as the forecast for the second period. Compute forecasts using two different values of alpha, =.1 and =.8 . Compute the errors for each forecast and compare the errors produced by using the two different exponential smoothing constants.
Explanation / Answer
alpha = 0.1
Month Demand (d) simple expsmoothing forecast (f) Error ( e ) Abs error
(AE) abs % error
(APE) sqrd error
(SE) d-f |d-f| ae/d e*e 1 211 2 228 211.0000 3 236 212.7000 -23.3000 23.3000 0.0987 542.8900 4 241 215.0300 -25.9700 25.9700 0.1078 674.4409 5 242 217.6270 -24.3730 24.3730 0.1007 594.0431 6 227 220.0643 -6.9357 6.9357 0.0306 48.1039 7 217 220.7579 3.7579 3.7579 0.0173 14.1216 8 203 220.3821 17.3821 17.3821 0.0856 302.1368