Consider the following monthly sales data for a company: Using the method of mov

Question

Consider the following monthly sales data for a company:

Using the method of moving averages over 4 months for the 2015 data, which month in 2016 best matches the predicted value?

May

June

July

August

Jan-2015 147772 Feb-2015 144335 Mar-2015 163943 Apr-2015 169634 May-2015 175371 Jun-2015 174825 Jul-2015 176995 Aug-2015 176208 Sep-2015 170202 Oct-2015 175510 Nov-2015 180364 Dec-2015 217629 Jan-2016 154400 Feb-2016 155596 Mar-2016 183782 Apr-2016 181209 May-2016 186359 Jun-2016 189244 Jul-2016 184978 Aug-2016 192925

Explanation / Answer

after applying 4 month moving average on above

here minimum bias is for the month of July-16.

hence it matches nearly to its predicted value

Month actual(A) Forcast(F) (A-F)=bias Jan-15 147772 Feb-15 144335 Mar-15 163943 Apr-15 169634 May-15 175371 156421 18950 Jun-15 174825 163320.8 11504.25 Jul-15 176995 170943.3 6051.75 Aug-15 176208 174206.3 2001.75 Sep-15 170202 175849.8 -5647.75 Oct-15 175510 174557.5 952.5 Nov-15 180364 174728.8 5635.25 Dec-15 217629 175571 42058 Jan-16 154400 185926.3 -31526.3 Feb-16 155596 181975.8 -26379.8 Mar-16 183782 176997.3 6784.75 Apr-16 181209 177851.8 3357.25 May-16 186359 168746.8 17612.25 Jun-16 189244 176736.5 12507.5 Jul-16 184978 185148.5 -170.5 Aug-16 192925 185447.5 7477.5

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