CORRELATION REVELATION Regression and Correlation are the most used and most abu
ID: 3209080 • Letter: C
Question
CORRELATION REVELATION
Regression and Correlation are the most used and most abused tools in research. People are quick to jump to conclusions that if a relationship exists between two variables, then one must cause the other. There are many reasons why two variables can be related without causality. For example, there is a strong inverse relationship between the sale of ice cream and the number of reported cases of the flu -- does ice cream cure the flu? Of course not, but more ice cream is consumed in the summer, when the flu is minimized, thus there is a seasonal relationship, not a causal one. There is also a relationship between the seat belt lights turning on in an airplane and the existence of turbulence in flight, but the lights do not cause the turbulence.
Give a plausible explanation for the following correlations:
1) There is a strong relationship between the amount of money people spend and the amount people save (in other words, people who spend more tend to save more). Does this mean that you can improve your life savings by spending more money? Explain how this correlation is true.
2) There is a strong relationship between the number of cops on our streets and the number of reported crimes. Does this mean that cops commit crimes or that criminals are more bold when cops are on the streets? Explain how this correlation is true.
(300 words please..)
Explanation / Answer
1.
The explanation to this correlation are many. But I will talk about the most plausible. You may just add words to this explanation to detail it for the word limit. When you spend high, as a consumer you have changed mindset. THe mindset is that of spending high and and a better standard of living. When you have a high standard of living you have to offset the higher expenses with higher salaries or better perks. Therefore, your salary increases to suit your lifestyle. Now, it may be the case that although yur expenditure increases but your salary has increased at a much higher rate. Hence, the money saved has increased to a larger extent compared to your increased expenditure. This how we can reason this particular correlation.
2.
The more likely direction to the correlation seems to be the one not mentioned in the question. Cops don't commit crime. Also, criminals will not get bold when more cops are around. The plausible reason which I can come up with is that since the crime has increased( shown by increase in number of criminals) more number of cops are out in the field, manning the city. This seems to be more logical reason for a high correlation between number of reported crimes and the number of cops.