Consider the following monthly observations for 5 years. MYear Jan Feb Mar Apr M

Question

Consider the following monthly observations for 5 years. MYear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jull Aug Sep oct Nov Dec 1 22 39 29 10 11 13 38 19 38 14 25 39 2 31 16 18 31 23 27 11 11 31 27 10 12 3 35 31 35 12 14 30 14 11 23 30 13 35 4 37 34 19 38 38 39 36 39 24 15 21 26 5 13 16 11 23 39 14 24 24 18 30 25 39 a. Calculate the 12-month centered moving average. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Year Month CMA: Jan 1 Feb Mar 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Sep 1 oct 1 Nov 5 Feb 5 Mar 5 Apr 5 May 5 Jun Jul

Explanation / Answer

Solution:

a and b.

c-1. Seasonal index for april = (1.31 + 0.56 + 1.20 + 1.12)/4 = 1.0475

Seasonal index for November = (1.00 + 0.44 + 0.55 + 0.82)/4 = 0.7025

Year Month Observations 12-month forecast CMA Ratio-to moving average 1 Jan 22 1 Feb 39 1 Mar 29 1 Apr 10 1 May 11 1 Jun 13 1 Jul 38 24.75 25.13 1.51 1 Aug 19 25.5 24.54 0.77 1 Sep 38 23.58 23.13 1.64 1 Oct 14 22.67 23.54 0.59 1 Nov 25 24.42 24.92 1.00 1 Dec 39 25.42 26.00 1.50 2 Jan 31 26.58 25.46 1.22 2 Feb 16 24.33 24.00 0.67 2 Mar 18 23.67 23.38 0.77 2 Apr 31 23.08 23.63 1.31 2 May 23 24.17 23.54 0.98 2 Jun 27 22.92 21.79 1.24 2 Jul 11 20.67 20.83 0.53 2 Aug 11 21.00 20.83 0.53 2 Sep 31 22.25 21.63 1.43 2 Oct 27 23.67 22.96 1.18 2 Nov 10 22.08 22.88 0.44 2 Dec 12 21.33 21.71 0.55 3 Jan 35 21.58 21.46 1.63 3 Feb 31 21.83 21.71 1.43 3 Mar 35 21.83 21.83 1.60 3 Apr 12 21.17 21.50 0.56 3 May 14 21.42 21.29 0.66 3 Jun 30 21.67 21.54 1.39 3 Jul 14 23.58 22.63 0.62 3 Aug 11 23.75 23.67 0.46 3 Sep 23 24.00 23.88 0.96 3 Oct 30 22.67 23.33 1.29 3 Nov 13 24.83 23.75 0.55 3 Dec 35 26.83 25.83 1.35 4 Jan 37 27.58 27.21 1.36 4 Feb 34 29.42 28.50 1.19 4 Mar 19 31.75 30.58 0.62 4 Apr 38 31.83 31.79 1.20 4 May 38 30.58 31.21 1.22 4 Jun 39 31.25 30.92 1.26 4 Jul 36 30.50 30.88 1.17 4 Aug 39 28.50 29.50 1.32 4 Sep 24 27.00 27.75 0.86 4 Oct 15 26.33 26.67 0.56 4 Nov 21 25.08 25.71 0.82 4 Dec 26 25.17 25.13 1.03 5 Jan 13 23.08 24.13 0.54 5 Feb 16 22.08 22.58 0.71 5 Mar 11 20.83 21.46 0.51 5 Apr 23 20.33 20.58 1.12 5 May 39 21.58 20.96 1.86 5 Jun 14 21.92 21.75 0.64 5 Jul 24 5 Aug 24 5 Sep 18 5 Oct 30 5 Nov 25 5 Dec 39

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