Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to
ID: 3247227 • Letter: I
Question
Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to July was as follows:
Assume that the initial forecast for February is 30.0 (in $ thousands) and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are = 0.2 and = 0.3. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast for the architectural firm's August income is
nothing
thousand dollars
(round
your response to two decimal places).
The mean squared error (MSE) for the forecast developed using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is
nothing
thousand squared dollars (round your response to two decimal places).
'month feb, march, april, may , June, July
income 35.0 , 32.6 , 28.1 , 26.3, 34.5, 32.0
Explanation / Answer
Answer:
Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to July was as follows:
Assume that the initial forecast for February is 30.0 (in $ thousands) and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are = 0.2 and = 0.3. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast for the architectural firm's August income is
31.44 thousand dollars
(round your response to two decimal places).
The mean squared error (MSE) for the forecast developed using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is
14.38 thousand squared dollars (round your response to two decimal places).
'month feb, march, april, may , June, July
income 35.0 , 32.6 , 28.1 , 26.3, 34.5, 32.0
Two-factor Exponential Smoothing
Alpha
Beta
.20
.30
t
Income
Smoothed
Trend
Forecast
% error
30.00
0.00
*
1
35.0
31.00
0.30
30.00
14.3
2
32.6
31.56
0.38
31.30
4.0
3
28.1
31.14
0.14
31.90
-13.5
4
26.3
30.30
-0.15
31.30
-19.0
5
34.5
30.98
0.10
30.10
12.8
6
32.0
31.28
0.16
31.10
2.8
31.44
14.38
Mean Squared Error
11.1%
Mean Absolute Percent Error
66.7%
Percent Positive Errors
* initial values - user specified
Two-factor Exponential Smoothing
Alpha
Beta
.20
.30
t
Income
Smoothed
Trend
Forecast
% error
30.00
0.00
*
1
35.0
31.00
0.30
30.00
14.3
2
32.6
31.56
0.38
31.30
4.0
3
28.1
31.14
0.14
31.90
-13.5
4
26.3
30.30
-0.15
31.30
-19.0
5
34.5
30.98
0.10
30.10
12.8
6
32.0
31.28
0.16
31.10
2.8
31.44
14.38
Mean Squared Error
11.1%
Mean Absolute Percent Error
66.7%
Percent Positive Errors
* initial values - user specified