Monthly demand at G&B Electronics for TVs are as follows: Period Demand (units)
ID: 3269972 • Letter: M
Question
Monthly demand at G&B Electronics for TVs are as follows:
Period
Demand (units)
1
1000
2
1113
3
1271
4
1445
5
1558
6
1648
7
1724
8
1850
9
1864
10
2076
11
2167
12
2191
Estimate demand for the next month using simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3. For this model use level at Period 0 to be Lo=1,659 (the average demand over the 12 months). Evaluate the MAD,MAPE,MSE,TS and biad at n=12
Period
Demand (units)
1
1000
2
1113
3
1271
4
1445
5
1558
6
1648
7
1724
8
1850
9
1864
10
2076
11
2167
12
2191
Explanation / Answer
Exponential alpha =0.3 1 1000 1659 2 1113 1461.3 348.3 121312.89 31.2938005 3 1271 1356.81 85.81 7363.3561 6.75137687 4 1445 1331.067 113.933 12980.7285 7.88463668 5 1558 1365.2469 192.7531 37153.7576 12.3718293 6 1648 1423.07283 224.92717 50592.2318 13.6484933 7 1724 1490.55098 233.449019 54498.4445 13.5411264 8 1850 1560.58569 289.414313 83760.6447 15.6440169 9 1864 1647.40998 216.590019 46911.2365 11.6196362 10 2076 1712.38699 363.613014 132214.424 17.5150777 11 2167 1821.47089 345.529109 119390.365 15.9450443 12 2191 1925.12962 265.870377 70687.0572 12.1346589 MAE MSE MAPE 243.653556 736865.136 14.395427