In the 2004 Presidential election, one of the hotly contested states was Ohio. O
ID: 3302244 • Letter: I
Question
In the 2004 Presidential election, one of the hotly contested states was Ohio. Oftentimes, exit polls are to predict which candidate will carry that state (i.e. get a majority of the votes in that state). In were 2020 Ohio residents that participated in an exit poll. Of those polled, 1030 said that they Bush 2. voted for a. With this information, could one conclude that Bush would carry Ohio at the 0.05 significance level using the Coin Tossing applet? State the null model and report the p-value? b. Now perform a traditional hypothesis test (by hand) to see that Bush would carry Ohio at the 0.05 significance level? Context Conditions Calculations Conclusion c. Use Minitab to confirm the test statistic and the p-value.Explanation / Answer
PART B.
Given that,
possibile chances (x)=1030
sample size(n)=2020
success rate ( p )= x/n = 0.5099
success probability,( po )=0.5
failure probability,( qo) = 0.5
null, Ho:p<0.5
alternate, H1: p>0.5
level of significance, = 0.05
from standard normal table,right tailed z /2 =1.64
since our test is right-tailed
reject Ho, if zo > 1.64
we use test statistic z proportion = p-po/sqrt(poqo/n)
zo=0.5099-0.5/(sqrt(0.25)/2020)
zo =0.89
| zo | =0.89
critical value
the value of |z | at los 0.05% is 1.64
we got |zo| =0.89 & | z | =1.64
make decision
hence value of |zo | < | z | and here we do not reject Ho
p-value: right tail - Ha : ( p > 0.88999 ) = 0.18674
hence value of p0.05 < 0.18674,here we do not reject Ho
ANSWERS
---------------
null, Ho:p=0.5
alternate, H1: p>0.5
test statistic: 0.89
critical value: 1.64
decision: do not reject Ho
p-value: 0.18674
PART C.
Hypothesis test for proportion vs hypothesized value
Observed Hypothesized
0.5099 0.5 p (as decimal)
1030/2020 1010/2020 p (as fraction)
1030. 1010. X
2020 2020 n
0.0111 std. error
0.89 z
.1867 p-value (one-tailed, upper)