Stormflow is a raising of the water mirror by low-pressure weather systems combi
ID: 3305455 • Letter: S
Question
Stormflow is a raising of the water mirror by low-pressure weather systems combined with onshore winds that push water in a wave against the coast. Let's assume that stormflows of a certain size and in a particular place are independent of each other. We will look at stormflow (of a certain size and at a certain location), which comes with a frequency of one in 50 years (comes with 50 years of repeat interval).
a) What is the probability of three stormflows of this size in this place in the course of 50 years?
b) What is the probability that there will not be a stormflow of this size of space for a period of 100 years?
Explanation / Answer
Modelling this as a Binomial distribution with probability parameter, p = 1/50 = 0.02
Let X denote the random variable for the number of stormflows
(a)
P(X=3) = 50C3*0.023*0.9847 = 0.0607
(b)
P(X=0) = 100C0*0.020*0.98100 = 0.133
Hope this helps !