Problem 5 (Questions 31-35) Ft-Ft-1 + (At-1-Ft-1) | SMAS NMA e )- S(3) ES(0.6) 1

Question

Problem 5 (Questions 31-35) Ft-Ft-1 + (At-1-Ft-1) | SMAS NMA e )- S(3) ES(0.6) 120 120 129 126.6 SMA(2) WMA(0.3, 0.7) Sales 120 135 125 16010 week 127.5 130 124.5 132 4 MAD What is the Forecast for week 5 using SMA? What is the forecast for week 5 using WMA? What is the forecast for week 5 using ES? What is the absolute deviation of SMA on week 4? Which of the three methods would you use to forecast based on MAD? a) 142.5; b) 137.5; c) 132.5; d) 127.5 a) 122.5; b) 129.5; c) 132.5; d) 135.5 a) 137.28; b) 132.72; c) 146.64; d) 1 a) 20; b) 15; c) 30; d) 37.5 a) SMA; b) WMA; c) ES

Explanation / Answer

1)

a) 142.5

2)

d) 135.5

3)

c) 146.64

4)

c) 30

5)

b) WMA (It has the least MAD=14.25)

Week Sales SMA WMA EMA SMA Dev SMA Abs Dev WMA Dev WMA Abs Dev EMA Dev EMA Abs Dev 1 120 120 2 135 120 3 125 127.5 124.5 129 -2.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 -4 4 4 160 130 132 126.6 30 30 28 28 33.4 33.4 5 142.5 135.5 146.64 MAD MAD MAD 16.25 14.25 18.7

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