Insert Backspace Num Lock Home Jill is flying from Portland to Austin, Texas wit
ID: 3366377 • Letter: I
Question
Insert Backspace Num Lock Home Jill is flying from Portland to Austin, Texas with a connection in Dallas. The probability her flight leaves on time is .35. If the flight leaves on time, the probability that her luggage makes the connecting flight is.80. If her flight is delayed, the probability her luggage made the flight is only .55. If Jill arrives in Austin, Texas and her luggage is not there, what is the probability that her first flight was delayed? (hint: make a tree diagram and write down all pertinent information). Let event D be that the flight is delayed the event that her luggage made the connecting flight. (10 pts)Explanation / Answer
P(Lc)=P(on time and luggage not there +delayed and luggage not there) =0.35*(1-0.80)+(1-0.35)*(1-0.55)=0.3625
hence P(flight delayed|luggage not there)= P(delayed and luggage not there)/P(Lc)=(1-0.35)*(1-0.55)/0.3625
=0.8069