A political pollster is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to mak
ID: 3367742 • Letter: A
Question
A political pollster is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to make predictions on election night. Assuming a two candidate election, if a specific candidate receives at least 54% of the vote sample, that candidate will be forecast as the winner. You select a select a random sample of 100 voters. What is the probability that a candidate will be forecast as the winner when the population percentage of her vote is 50.1? What is the probability that a candidate will forecast as winner when the population percentage of her vote is 56%? What is the probability that a candidate will forecast as winner when the population percentage of her vote is 49%Suppose the sample size was increased to 400. Repeat the process using th new sample size. A political pollster is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to make predictions on election night. Assuming a two candidate election, if a specific candidate receives at least 54% of the vote sample, that candidate will be forecast as the winner. You select a select a random sample of 100 voters. What is the probability that a candidate will be forecast as the winner when the population percentage of her vote is 50.1? A political pollster is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to make predictions on election night. Assuming a two candidate election, if a specific candidate receives at least 54% of the vote sample, that candidate will be forecast as the winner. You select a select a random sample of 100 voters. What is the probability that a candidate will be forecast as the winner when the population percentage of her vote is 50.1? What is the probability that a candidate will forecast as winner when the population percentage of her vote is 56%? What is the probability that a candidate will forecast as winner when the population percentage of her vote is 49%
Suppose the sample size was increased to 400. Repeat the process using th new sample size.
Explanation / Answer
n=100
a)mean=np=100*50.1/100=0.501
sd=sqrt(np(1-p))=sqrt(100(0.501*0.46)=sqrt(24.99)=4.9999
assume normal distribution
Z=(54-50.1)/4.99999=0.7800
P(Z>0.78)=0.21770
b)Find mean and sd using 56 %
mean=100*0.56=56
sd=sqrt[(100(0.56)(0.44)]=sqrt(24.64)=4.9638
Z=(54-56)/4.9638=-0.4029
P(Z>-4029)=1-P(Z<0.4029=1-0.34458=0.6565
c)Find mean and sd using 49%
mean=49
sd=sqrt(100(0.49*0.51)=4.9989
Z=(54-49/4.9989)=1.0002
P(Z>1.0002)=1.-0.8414=0.1586
d)the sample size was increased to 400. Repeat the process using the new sample size.
please take n=400 calculate a to c again