Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 1 24,850 22,130 21,705 16,039 19,236
ID: 3387629 • Letter: Q
Question
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
1
24,850
22,130
21,705
16,039
19,236
2
21,300
18,711
17,012
18,526
16,778
3
19,500
19,602
18,326
20,087
4
24,422
23,005
22,639
23,236
Compute a 4-Quarter moving average forecast for Qtr. 3 of Year 5 (round to the nearest unit)
Compute a 3-Quarter weighted moving average forecast for Quarter 3 of Year 5. Use these weights: 7 on the prior quarter, and then 4 and 1 (respectively) on quarters prior to that (rounded to the nearest unit).
Use exponential smoothing method with = 0.33 to forecast demand in Quarter 3 of Year 5. Assume Forecast for Q1 of Year 1= 24,850. Round off the final answer to nearest integer.
Examine the 3 methods you used in the previous 3 problems. Which is best to use for this time series?
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
1
24,850
22,130
21,705
16,039
19,236
2
21,300
18,711
17,012
18,526
16,778
3
19,500
19,602
18,326
20,087
4
24,422
23,005
22,639
23,236
Explanation / Answer
4-Quarter moving average forecast for Qtr. 3 of Year 5 gives value
(19,500 +
19,602 +
18,326 +
20,087) /4 = 19379
3-Quarter weighted moving average forecast for Quarter 3 of Year 5 using the given weights gives =19460
Exponential Smoothing
with alpha = 0.333 gives 18735.97
(19,500 +
19,602 +
18,326 +
20,087) /4 = 19379