NT 510-part B Operations Management Mid-term Spring 201 2) Use exponential smoot
ID: 348398 • Letter: N
Question
NT 510-part B Operations Management Mid-term Spring 201 2) Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period. Let alpha = 0.4, beta = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200, (10 points) Actual 200 212 214 236 221 240 244 250 7 1266 Calculate and Fill-in: 1.MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)- Average: 2.MSE (Mean Squared Exror) - Average: 3. Standard Error- Average: 4.MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 5. Forecast next period 6. Provide track signals for past 9 periods (2-10)Explanation / Answer
Actual Demand (A)
Forecast (F)
Trend
(T)
Adjusted Forecast
F1= (F+T)
Absoulute Error
B=|A-F1|
Square of Errors E=B^2
Deviation from Mean
D = Mean (F1)-F1
Squared Deviation
D1 = D^2
1
220
200.0
4.0
204.0
16.0
256.0
203.14
41266.35
2
212
208.0
4.8
212.8
0.8
0.6
194.34
37768.51
3
214
209.6
4.2
213.8
0.2
0.1
193.38
37396.30
4
222
211.4
3.7
215.0
7.0
48.4
192.10
36902.88
5
236
215.6
3.8
219.4
16.6
275.2
187.73
35242.56
6
221
223.8
4.7
228.4
7.4
55.3
178.70
31935.38
7
240
222.7
3.5
226.2
13.8
191.2
180.97
32749.24
8
244
229.6
4.2
233.8
10.2
104.2
173.35
30049.37
9
250
235.4
4.5
239.9
10.1
102.7
167.27
27980.41
10
266
241.2
4.8
246.0
20.0
400.2
161.15
25968.46
Total
2197.2
2239.3
102.2
1433.9
AVERAGE
399.49
407.14
18.58
260.70
33725.95
Forecast, Ft = At-1 + (1-)*Ft-1
Where
Ft = Forecast of this year
At-1 = Actual of previous year
Ft-1 = Forecast of previous year
Trend, Tt = *(Ft - Ft-1) + (1-)*Tt-1
F= 0.4 * 266 + 0.6* 241 = 251
T = 0.2 *(251-241) + 0.8* 4.8 = 5.8
Therefore, F1 = F+ T = 256.8
Actual Demand (A)
Forecast (F)
Trend
(T)
Adjusted Forecast
F1= (F+T)
Absoulute Error
B=|A-F1|
Square of Errors E=B^2
Deviation from Mean
D = Mean (F1)-F1
Squared Deviation
D1 = D^2
1
220
200.0
4.0
204.0
16.0
256.0
203.14
41266.35
2
212
208.0
4.8
212.8
0.8
0.6
194.34
37768.51
3
214
209.6
4.2
213.8
0.2
0.1
193.38
37396.30
4
222
211.4
3.7
215.0
7.0
48.4
192.10
36902.88
5
236
215.6
3.8
219.4
16.6
275.2
187.73
35242.56
6
221
223.8
4.7
228.4
7.4
55.3
178.70
31935.38
7
240
222.7
3.5
226.2
13.8
191.2
180.97
32749.24
8
244
229.6
4.2
233.8
10.2
104.2
173.35
30049.37
9
250
235.4
4.5
239.9
10.1
102.7
167.27
27980.41
10
266
241.2
4.8
246.0
20.0
400.2
161.15
25968.46
Total
2197.2
2239.3
102.2
1433.9
AVERAGE
399.49
407.14
18.58
260.70
33725.95