Match each of the stories below with at least one of the following phenomena: av
ID: 3491546 • Letter: M
Question
Match each of the stories below with at least one of the following phenomena: availability bias, base-rate neglect, confirmation bias, conjunction fallacy, disjunction fallacy and explain briefly what the bias entails and why it fits the story. (a) Claire's car is old and has not been well-maintained. Her friend who is an experienced car mechanic, warns her that there is 5 per cent probability of breaking down every kilometre. Claire really wants to visit her mother in the nursing home that is about twenty kilometres away. Pondering her friend's warning that the car has a 5 per cent probability of breaking down each kilometre, she figures that the probability of breaking down during the trip cannot be much higher than fifteen per cent. She is shocked when her car breaks down half way to the nursing home. (b) Denise lost all her luggage the last time he checked it in. She vows never again to check her luggage in, even if it means having unpleasant arguments with flight attendants. (c) Although having never travelled outside the ACT, Clarence gets himself tested for malaria. The test comes back positive. Convinced he will die of malaria, he asks his priest to perform the Viaticum or Last Rites. (d) Doug has always been convinced that people of Roma (gyspy) descent are prone to thievery. Several of his co-workers have a Roma background and he knows they are not thieves. One day a friend shares a story about two people who "looked like gypsies" stealing goods from a grocery store. "I knew it!" Doug says to himself.Explanation / Answer
The corret answers are-
a) Correct answer- Base Rate Neglect. The base rate neglect entails the assessment for occurence of something based on probability of occurence of the same event in past. The information provided acts as a base and the future occurence of the same event is calculated. This is a cognitive bias, where less emphasis is placed on the base rate of occurence, thereby it leads to a planning fallacy.
b) Correct answer- Availability Bias. Denise recently lost her luggage, so this memory is fresh in her mind. So next time she is travelling, because of the information regarding the loss of luggage is readily available, she chose to keep the luggage with her. Availability bias is one's tendency to use the immediate information or examples to take decisions and ignoring the vast information that was previously available.
c) Correct answer- Conjunction Fallacy. In the given example, Clarence is focussing more on specific information rather than focussing on general information. People do not die specifically because of malaria, there may be other morbid conditions also.
d) Correct answer- Confirmation Bias. As Doug is convinced that people from Roma (gypsy) descent are prone to theivery so, he only looks for information which reinforces this thought. Although there are people from Roma who are not theives, that information is discounted by Doug and he selectivley picks up the information shared by his friend about Roma people. Confirmatory bias is a tendency to search for information that reinofces one's prexisting schemas about something.