Consider the following time series data. Choose the correct time series plot. Wh
ID: 368961 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the following time series data.
Choose the correct time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.
MSE: _____?_____
The forecast for week 7: ______?____
c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.
MSE: _____?_____
The forecast for week 7: _____?_____
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
Answ: Three week moving average / Exponential smoothing
e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. Find a value of a for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.
a = __________
Explanation / Answer
a- Line plot will be best for the time series because it properly display information that changes continuously over time.No fixed pattern can be interpreted from the time series.
b-
Week 7 forecast=14.33 and MSE=(21.79+7.13+1.77)/3=30.69/3=10.23
week time series values Forecast Error Error2 1 19 - - - 2 14 - - - 3 17 - - - 4 12 16.67 -4.67 21.79 5 17 14.33 2.67 7.13 6 14 15.33 -1.33 1.77 7 - 14.33 - -