I only need the last question\'s answer, it is not 0.15 or 0.1 or 0.2 Problem 15
ID: 375211 • Letter: I
Question
I only need the last question's answer, it is not 0.15 or 0.1 or 0.2
Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 16 13 18 11 15 14 a. Choose the correct time series plot Time Series Value Time Series Value Time Scricos Value tine Seriea Mlue What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers 13 MSE: The forecast for week 7: Use a0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 The forecast for week 7: d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using -0.2, which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSEP The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing cnefficient that resuts in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for -0.2. Find a value cf for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.Explanation / Answer
MSE = (SUM of ERROR^2)/(Total values for error - 1)
For alpha = 0.2, values are:
MSE = 40.87/(5-1) = 10.22
Now, using hit and trial for lower MSE as:
alpha = 0.1, MSE = 10.181
alpha = 0.15, MSE = 10.135
alpha = 0.14, MSE = 10.134
alpha = 0.141, MSE = 10.13470
alpha = 0.142, MSE = 10.13469
alpha = 0.143, MSE = 10.13473
Hence, alpha 0.142 is the optimum point
Period Demand (D) Forecast (F1) Error (D-F) Error Abs Error Sq 1 16 2 13 16.00 (3.00) 3.00 9.00 3 18 15.40 2.60 2.60 6.76 4 11 15.92 (4.92) 4.92 24.21 5 15 14.94 0.06 0.06 0.00 6 14 14.95 (0.95) 0.95 0.90 21 87 (6.20) 11.53 40.87