The Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec b) The forecast for t

Question

The Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method- sales (round your response to a whole numbe) The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 3-month moving average approach saes(ound your response to two deoimal places) The fo e astfo the next pei daar usi ga6 month weighted a erage with we te d 10.0 10.0 10.020 020 and 0.30. where the heale twe g es are applied tot emotie ent mort.sales und your response to one decimal place) Using expone Sal smoothing with -40 and a September forecast of 21 00 the forecast for the next period Jan)sales o nd your espose to h ode mal places

Explanation / Answer

b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method = 24

Jan forecast is the same as December actual sales based on naive method.

Forecast for Jan using 3-month Moving Average method = (24+20+20)/3 = 21.3

Forecast for Jan using 6-month Weighted Moving Average = [(0.3*24)+(0.2*20)+(0.2*20)+(0.1*20)+(0.1*19)+(0.1*16)] = 16.7

Forecast for Jan based on Exponential smoothing = 0.4 with September forecast = 21

October Forecast = 21 + 0.4*(20-21) = 20.6

November Forecast = 20.6+0.4*(20.6-20) = 20.84

December Forecast = 20.84+0.4*(20.84-20) = 21.176

January Forecast = 21.176+0.4*(21.176-24) = 20.0464

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