ABC Company, a manufacturer of roofing supplies, has developed monthly forecasts
ID: 401756 • Letter: A
Question
ABC Company, a manufacturer of roofing supplies, has developed monthly forecasts for roofing tiles. The forecasted demand and the expected production days for months March to August in 2013 are given below: Month Forecasted demand (units) Production days March 2400 23 April 4500 20 May 2600 22 June 7000 20 July 2000 23 August 3000 22 ABC works 8 regular hours in each working day and past experience shows that one worker takes 1 hour to produce one tile. The company has estimated that there would be 5 production workers working in February 2013 and 250 tiles in inventory at the end of February 2013. Labor Union restricts ABC that overtime hours cannot exceed 20% of straight time (regular) hours in each month. ABC wants to keep at least 200 tiles in inventory at the end of August 2013. ABC has the following cost information: Inventory holding cost = $3/unit/month Backorder cost = $10/unit Subcontracting cost = $30/unit Straight time labour cost = $12/hour Overtime cost = $24/hour Hiring cost = $800 Firing cost = $1600 If ABC allows backorders but does not want to use subcontracting or overtime: a. Find the minimum constant workforce required to meet the above requirement (level production strategy). b. Develop an aggregate production plan with the minimum constant workforce obtained in part (a) (level production strategy). c. Estimate the total cost of the plan in (b). If ABC wants to maintain zero inventory at the end of each month except for August, and does not want to use subcontracting or overtime, d. Develop an aggregate production plan with zero inventory policy (chase strategy with flexible working hours). e. Estimate the total cost of the plan in (d)Explanation / Answer
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example, in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible. Although quantitative analysis can be very precise, it is not always appropriate. Some experts in the field of forecasting have advised against the use of mean square error to compare forecasting methods Realization of the fact that "Time is Money" in business activities, the dynamic decision technologies presented here, have been a necessary tool for applying to a wide range of managerial decisions successfully where time and money are directly related. In making strategic decisions under uncertainty, we all make forecasts. We may not think that we are forecasting, but our choices will be directed by our anticipation of results of our actions or inactions. Indecision and delays are the parents of failure. This site is intended to help managers and administrators do a better job of anticipating, and hence a better job of managing uncertainty, by using effective forecasting and other predictive techniques.