Month Actual Jan 220 feb 260 mar 300 apr 340 may 320 jun 360 jul 280 aug 260 sep

Question

Month    Actual

Jan          220

feb           260

mar          300

apr           340

may         320

jun           360

jul            280

aug          260

sep          280

A. Forecast april through september using a three month moving average.

B. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of .3 to estimate april through september, using the average of january through march as the intial forecast for april.

C. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six month period.

D. Using the best method identified in c above, generate a forecast for october through december.

Explanation / Answer

ans

source (http://www.scribd.com/doc/92125554/Forecasting-With-Moving-Average-Method-Mean-Absolute-Deviation-MAD-and-Squared-Error-MSE-Method)

ans a

apr=220+260+300/3=260

may=260+300+340/3=300

jun=300+340+320/3=320

july=340+320+360/3=340

aug=320+360+280/3=320

sep=360+280+260/3=300

c

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