Forrest and Dan make boxes of chocolates for which the demand is uncertain. Forr
ID: 422761 • Letter: F
Question
Forrest and Dan make boxes of chocolates for which the demand is uncertain. Forrest? says, "That's? life." On the other? hand, Dan believes that some demand patterns exist that could be useful for planning the purchase of? sugar, chocolate, and shrimp. Forrest insists on placing a surprise? chocolate-covered shrimp in some boxes so that? "You never know what? you'll get." Quarterly demand? (in boxes of? chocolates) for the last three years is shown in the table? below:
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Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
1
2000
2200
2250
2
1900
2175
2225
3
700
950
1025
4
5750
5800
6075
Total
10350
11125
11575
Use intuition and judgment to estimate quarterly demand for the fourth year.
The forecast for quarter 1 is ? boxes of chocolates.
The forecast for quarter 2 is ? boxes of chocolates.
The forecast for quarter 3 is ? boxes of chocolates.
The forecast for quarter 4 is ? boxes of chocolates.
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
1
2000
2200
2250
2
1900
2175
2225
3
700
950
1025
4
5750
5800
6075
Total
10350
11125
11575
Explanation / Answer
Using intuition and judgment, we see that every quarter's demand is increasing every year.
Increase in demand in quarter 1 from year 1 to 3 = 2250-2000 = 250. Average increase in demand in quarter per year = 250/2 = 125
Forecast for quarter 1 = 2250+125 = 2375 boxes
Increase in demand in quarter 2 from year 1 to 3 = 2225-1900 = 325. Average increase in demand in quarter per year = 325/2 = 162.5
Forecast for quarter 1 = 2225+162.5 = 2387.5 boxes
Increase in demand in quarter 3 from year 1 to 3 = 1025-700 = 325. Average increase in demand in quarter per year = 325/2 = 162.5
Forecast for quarter 1 = 1025+162.5 = 1187.5 boxes
Increase in demand in quarter 4 from year 1 to 3 = 6075-5750 = 325. Average increase in demand in quarter per year = 325/2 = 162.5
Forecast for quarter 1 = 6075+162.5 = 6237.5 boxes