PartD Based on this graph, which statement belowmost accurately describes the im

Question

PartD Based on this graph, which statement belowmost accurately describes the impacts we should expect on Earthduring the coming year?

ANS :Earth will be hit by at least one object a fewmeters in diameter, along with manysmaller objects.


Part E
The impact of a 100-meter object will not cause "widespread"devastation, but it could still kill millions of people if itstruck a major city. In Part C, you found that the probability ofsuch an impact in any single year is only 1 in 1000. Suppose welearn that it has already been 1200 years since the last suchimpact. What would that tell us?


Part E

Nothing; we would still presume that the chanceof such an impact during the next year is 1 in 1000. We are clearly due for such an impact, so theactual probability for the coming year must be much higher than 1in 1000. There must be something wrong with the graph,because if the 1 in 1000 probability were correct, then there wouldhave been an impact some time during the past 1000 years. Sincethere wasn't, the actual probability must be lower than 1 in1000. We are overdue for the impact of a 100-meterobject, so we should expect the impact of an even larger objectduring the next few years.

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