Consider the following time series data Week 1 23 4 5 6 Value 19 12 15 11 19 13

Question

Consider the following time series data Week 1 23 4 5 6 Value 19 12 15 11 19 13 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. (d) What is the forecast for week 7? 13

Explanation / Answer

a)

mean absolute error =5.6

b)

mean squared error =34.8

c)

mean absolute percentage error =40.59%

d)

forecast for week 7 =13

week value(A) Forecast(F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 |A-F|/A 1 19 2 12 19 7 49 0.583 3 15 12 3 9 0.200 4 11 15 4 16 0.364 5 19 11 8 64 0.421 6 13 19 6 36 0.462 13 average 5.6 34.8 40.6%

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