Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 456 Value 19 12 16 10 17 13

Question

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 456 Value 19 12 16 10 17 13 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. 5.2 (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. 5.4 (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. 40.57 (d) What is the forecast for week 7? 13

Explanation / Answer

from naive method: next period forecast =last month actual

a)

Mean absolute error =5.6

b)Mean squared error =33.2

c) mean absolute % error =43.06% ( please try 43.00 % if this comes wrong and revert)

week actual(A) Forecast(F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 |A-F|/A 1 19 2 12 19 7 49 0.583 3 16 12 4 16 0.250 4 10 16 6 36 0.600 5 17 10 7 49 0.412 6 13 17 4 16 0.308 total 28 166 2.153 average 5.6 33.2 0.4306

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