Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 13 15 11 19 1
ID: 3066807 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 13 15 11 19 15 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. (d) What is the forecast for week 7?
Explanation / Answer
for we know that from naive method ; next month forecast =last month actual value
a)Mean absolute error =4.80
b) Mean squared error 27.2
c) Mean absolute percentage error 32.92%
d) forecast for week 7 =15
Time period Actual Value(A) Moving avg. Forecast(F) Forecast error E=|A-F| Squared Forecast Error |A-F|A 1 19 2 13 19 6 36 0.4615 3 15 13 2 4 0.1333 4 11 15 4 16 0.3636 5 19 11 8 64 0.4211 6 15 19 4 16 0.2667 7 15 Total 24 136 1.65 Average 4.80 27.20 32.92% MAD MSE MAPE