QUESTION 1: contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). I

Question

QUESTION 1: contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods.  Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

1. The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45  (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59  (5) 55  (6) 54  (7) 64  (8) 59  (9) 72  (10) 66  (11) 67  (12) 78

Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2. Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3. With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4. With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5. With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6. Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

a) Forecast for period 13 = (59+72+66+67+78)/5 = 68.4

b) Forcast for period 13 = 0.63*72+0.26*66+0.08*67+0.03*78 = 70.22

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