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Cardiac failures are caused by one of two reasons: natural processes(87%) or ext

ID: 3060483 • Letter: C

Question

Cardiac failures are caused by one of two reasons: natural processes(87%) or external factors(13%). Of the cardiac failures caused by external factors, 73% are from injested substances and 27% are from objects or physical trauma. The mostcommon natural causes are: artery blockage(56%). illness(27%) or infection(17%). The mortality rate for these natural causes are 65% artery blockage and 60% for illness and infection. meanwhile the mortality rate for external factors is 90%. Calculate the probability of a person surviving a cardiac failure. -If someone suffers cardiac failure and dies what is the probability that it was from a blocked artery?

Explanation / Answer

Answer to the question is as follows:

1.

P(person surviving a cardiac failure)

= (.87)*(.56*(1-.65) + (.27+.17)*(1-.60)) + .13*(.73+.27)*(1-.90)

= 0.33664

2. P(some one suffers cardiac failure and dies then chances it was from blocked artery)

= (((.87)*(.56*(.65))/((.87)*(.56*(.65) + (.27+.17)*(.60)) + .13*(.73+.27)*(.90))

= 0.4774