In America, we are bombarded by opinion polls. Such polls use the method of indu
ID: 3125057 • Letter: I
Question
In America, we are bombarded by opinion polls. Such polls use the method of inductive generalizing from a sample, presuming that the answers given by a small number of respondents represent the attitudes of American voters as a whole. Do a search on the Internet for a recent opinion poll. Paste the results in your discussion response. Look at the report of the poll results and discuss how strong you believe these poll results are. Refer to such aspects of inductive generalizing as the sampling frame, how representative the poll sample was, and how biased the poll might be.
Explanation / Answer
Polls show that in both states, Republicans are most concerned with terrorism and foreign policy, while Democrats are focused primarily on jobs and the economy — despite both Iowa and New Hampshire having unemployment rates below 4 percent.
In Iowa, almost a third of Republican primary voters name terrorism or foreign policy as their top concern when choosing a candidate, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted this month. In a parallel poll of Democrats, 35 percent said that jobs and the economy were paramount. Those issues ranked second among Republicans, 27 percent of whom named jobs and the economy as the most important.
In addition to the economy and foreign policy, Democrats in Iowa tend to focus on health care and climate change. Fifteen percent and 11 percent, respectively, call those the most important factors in their vote, according to Quinnipiac. Republicans worry more about the budget deficit, with 10 percent calling it the most important issue.
New Hampshire shares Iowa’s main concerns, and its partisan divide. About a third of likely Republican primary voters say national security and terrorism are their top issues, according to a Monmouth University poll conducted this month. Another 20 percent say jobs and the economy are most important.
Among New Hampshire Democrats, roughly three in 10 pointed to jobs and the economy as the main factors when choosing a candidate to support. About half that number said national security and terrorism.
These partisan differences correspond to the campaign speech on each side. Donald J. Trump, the leading candidate in most Republican primary polls, has emphasized a bellicose foreign policy and has pledged a no-holds-barred approach to fighting terrorism, while offering only vague prescriptions on economic policy.
On the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders has risen steadily in the polls on the strength of his redistributive economic proposals, while voters consistently say they trust Hillary Clinton more to handle foreign policy.
When asked without reference to the presidential race, residents in New Hampshire were most likely to call drug abuse the greatest problem facing their state; a quarter now say so, according to an October WMUR Granite State Poll. This represents a drastic change from a year before, when the state’s heroin epidemic was not as pronounced, and only 3 percent worried most about drug abuse, according to WMUR.
But only a tiny slice of New Hampshire voters say that drug policy is their top consideration when choosing a presidential nominee, according to the Monmouth polls. Still, hopefuls on both sides of the aisle are confronting the issue.
Some Republicans have spoken in personal terms about their families’ struggles with drug addiction, and candidates in both parties have said they will emphasize medical treatment for nonviolent drug offenders over jail sentences. Mrs. Clinton released a targeted plan in September to combat drug abuse; Mr. Sanders has expressed support for ending the war on drugs.
Nationwide, terrorism and Islamic extremism rank as the country’s top concerns in this month’s New York Times/CBS News poll, with 13 percent of Americans calling these the most important problems facing the country. (The number is 18 percent among Republicans, and half that among Democrats.)
Twelve percent of Americans view jobs and the economy as the country’s top problems, followed by immigration and anxieties about government and political corruption, each of which were named by 8 percent of the population.
Among Democrats nationwide, 8 percent point to income inequality and the wealth gap as the most important problem, but only 2 percent of Republicans say so.