ART Project The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is required by
ID: 3128931 • Letter: A
Question
ART Project
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is required by law to publish a report on assisted reproductive technologies (ART). ART includes all fertility treatments in which both the egg and the sperm are used. You are helping to prepare the CDC report and select at random 10 ART cycles for a special review. None of the cycles resulted in a clinical pregnancy. Your manager feels it is impossible to select at random 10 ART cycles that did not results in a clinical pregnancy. Use the pie chart in the accompanying document and your knowledge of statistics to determine whether your manager is correct.
Now for the question: Suspicious Samples?
Someone tells you that the samples below were selected at random. Using the graph in the accompanying document, which of the following samples would you consider suspicious? Would you believe that the samples were selected at random? Explain your reasoning. (5 points)
a) Selecting at random 10 ART cycles among women of age 40, eight of which resulted in clinical pregnancies.
b) Selecting at random 10 ART cycles among women of age 41, none of which resulted in clinical pregnancies.
Explanation / Answer
Selecting at random 10 ART cycles among women of age 40, eight of which resulted in clinical pregnancies.
this would I consider suspicious since the probability that 8 of which resulted in clinical pregnancies is very low
using the binomial distribution
P(x=8) = 10C8 * 0.267^8 * (1-0.267)^10-8 = 0.00062
b)
P(x=0) = 10C0 * 0.214^0 *(1-0.214)^10-0 = 0.08999
this is not so suspicious because the probability is more bibgeeer than in the first literal