In games where a team is favored by more than 12 points, the margin of victory f
ID: 3150404 • Letter: I
Question
In games where a team is favored by more than 12 points, the margin of victory for the favored team relative to the spread is normally distributed with a mean of -1.0 point and a standard deviation of 10.9 points. Source: Justin Woofers, “Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball”. c) In games where a team is favored by more than 12 points what is the probability that the favored team "beats the spread"? Does this imply that the possible point shaving spreads are accurate for games in which a team is favored by more than 12 points?
Explanation / Answer
MEAN = -1
STANDARD DEVIATION = 10.9
THE DISTRIBUTION IS NORMAL AND WILL HAVE TO FIND THE PROBABILITY P(X>12)
FORMULA TO BE USED = Z = (X-MEAN)/STANDARD DEVIATION)
P(X>12) = Z = (12+1)/10.9 = 13/10.9 = 1.19
THEREFORE P(X>12) = P(Z>1.19) = TOTAL AREA - AREA TO BE LEFT OF (Z = 1.19)
= 1 - 0.9719 = 0.0281
AS THE PROBABILITY IS VERT SMALL TEHEREFORE IT IS NOT LOGICAL TO IMPLY THAT POINT SHAVING SPREADS ARE ACCURATE FOR GAMES