Imagine that you have been given the job of developing a clinical test to determ

Question

Imagine that you have been given the job of developing a clinical test to determine if a person has a particular genetic condition. The test you develop identifies every person who is affected with the condition. But, as is common with such tests, a few unaffected, healthy people also give a positive result. Let's say this false positive rate is 0.01 or 1%. Assume that in the general population exactly l out of every 1000 people have this condition. Given this information, what is the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the condition?

Explanation / Answer

As we assume that , in general population exactly 1 out of every 1000 people have false positive condition,

So, the probability of false positive condition is 1/1000.

Now we calculate the probability of a person who tess positive actually has the condition is 999/1000 = 0.999          [ According to the probability rule weassume the total population as 1]

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