In the 1992 election for president, the last pre-election poll was : Bush = 35%
ID: 3273086 • Letter: I
Question
In the 1992 election for president, the last pre-election poll was :
Bush = 35%
Clinton = 45%
Perot = 18%
Others = 2%
The final election results were:
Bush = 37.1%
Clinton = 42.9%
Perot = 18.8%
Others = 1.2%
One of constant things you hear about election polls in the US is that the margin of error is +/- 3%. Obviously, if the margin of error is too large, the poll is of no use. For example, in almost all elections where there are 2 major candidates, the winner gets 50% +/- 10% of the vote.
So for this pre-election poll, did all of the predictions all fall within the margin of error of +/- 3%? (yes or no). If you answered “no”, then what should the pollster have said the margin of error was in order for all of the predictions to be correct?
Explanation / Answer
Pre-Poll
All are not within margin of +/- 3 %
So,pollster should have said the margin of error is +/- 40% ,because largest margin of error is 40% in pre-poll.
but if we consider only top two candidates he margin of error is +/- 6% ,because largest margin of error is 6 % in pre-poll.
Pre-Poll
Primary poll % margin 35 37.1 -6 45 42.9 4.66667 18 18.8 -4.4444 2 1.2 40