Cardiovascular Disease A group from the University of Utah set up an experiment
ID: 3299688 • Letter: C
Question
Cardiovascular Disease A group from the University of Utah set up an experiment to use Bayes' rule to help make clinical diagnoses [14]. In par ticular, a detailed medical history questionnaire and electro- cardiogram were administered to each patient referred to a cardiovascular laboratory and suspected of having congeni- tal heart disease. From the experience of this laboratory and from estimates based on other published data, two sets of probabilities were generated: (1) The unconditional probability of each of several disease states (see prevalence column in Table 3.12) (2) The conditional probability of specific symptoms given specific disease states (see the rest of Table 3.12). hus, the probability that a person has chest pain given that he or she is normal is .05. Similarly, the proportion of per- sons with isolated pulmonary hypertension is.020. A subset of the data is given in Table 3.12. Assume that these diagnoses are the only ones possible and that a patient can have one and only one diagnosis.Explanation / Answer
From the table,
P(Symptoms of chest pain | Isolated pulmonary hypertension)
= P(X5 | Y4)
= 0.10