After the political ad campaign, pollsters check the governor’s negatives. They
ID: 3311212 • Letter: A
Question
After the political ad campaign, pollsters check the governor’s negatives. They test the hypothesis that theads produced no change against the alternative that the negatives are now below 30% and find a p-value of0.22. Which conclusion is appropriate? Explain.
a) There is a 22% chance that the ads worked.
b) There is a 78% chance that the ads worked.
c) There is a 22% chance that the poll they conducted is correct.
d) There is a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results like these (or moreextreme) if there is really a change in public opinion.
e) There is a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results like these (or moreextreme) if there’s really no change in public opinion.
Explanation / Answer
Ans:
P Values. The P value, or calculated probability, is the probability of finding the observed, or more extreme, results when the null hypothesis (H 0) of a study question is true – the definition of 'extreme' depends on how the hypothesis is being tested.
So,Option e is correct.
There is a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results like these (or moreextreme) if there’s really no change in public opinion.