Consider an election with generic candidates X vs Y (which we could interpret as
ID: 3331185 • Letter: C
Question
Consider an election with generic candidates X vs Y (which we could interpret as chromosomes but not necessarily!). d. Candidate X must win 2 particular states in order to win the election; the forecast says she has a 60% chance of winning each state individually. Your friend, a wannabe statistician, explains that a 0.6 chance of winning one state and a 0.6 chance of winning the other means only a 0.6*0.6= 0.36 chance of winning both - so the "favorite" is actually not the favorite! Explain why your friend is wrong.
Explanation / Answer
Ans:
P(winning both)=0.6*0.6=0.36
This is true only when winning either of the state is independent of the winning the otner state.
The events of winning in either states are not indpenedent events.
But this may not be true ,as usually chances of winning in one states may be dependent on the other state,So this way your friend is wrong.