I only need question 2 and 4, I am confident about 1 and 3, but a little confuse
ID: 351267 • Letter: I
Question
I only need question 2 and 4, I am confident about 1 and 3, but a little confused about 2 and 4.
You have won two tickets to a Lady Gaga concert in Atlantic City. The concert is three days from now and you have to make travel arrangements. Calculate the reliability of each of the following options:
1. Take the bus from campus to Washington, DC, and from DC to Atlantic City. The bus from campus to DC has a reliability of 90%, and from DC to Atlantic City has a reliability of 93%.
2. Fly directly from the local airport to Atlantic City. The chance that the flight will leave on time and thus arrive in time for the concert is 90%, but there is also a 50% chance that you will be able to beg or borrow enough money to pay for the flight.
3. Drive to Atlantic City. Your car has a 70% chance of making the entire trip without breaking down. Although not recommended, if your car breaks down, you could hitchhike with a 40% chance of getting to Atlantic City unscathed and in time for the concert.
4. Drive to Washington, DC, and take the bus to Atlantic City from there. Your car has a 79% chance of making it to DC. If it doesn’t make it to DC, you can hitchhike there with a 40% chance of success.
Explanation / Answer
2. The reliability of the system will depend on the fact that the money is arranged and the flight reaches in time
Resultant reliability = P(Money is arranged) x P ( Flight reaches in time)
= 0.50 x0.9 = 0.45
4. Reliability will be the sum of two events. First, the probability that car gets there in time, added by the probability that a hitchhike was taken in the event of failure and was successful in reaching there.
Reliability = P ( Car makes it to DC) + P ( car does not make to DC) x P( Hitchhike takes you there successfully)
= 0.79+ ( 1-0.79) x 0.4
= 0.79+0.084 = 0.874.