Please answer the 3 questions I’m having trouble, thank you so much! Please show
ID: 394643 • Letter: P
Question
Please answer the 3 questions I’m having trouble, thank you so much!Please show work The Polish General's Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant catering to patrons with a taste of European pizza. On of its specialties is Polish Prize Pizza. Tammy Dough, manager of Polish General, must forecast weekly demand for these special pizzas so that she can order the correct amount of pizza shells weekly. Recently, the demand has been as follows. What is the forecast for October 13 using the naive method? Week September September8 September 15 September 22 September 29 October 6 50 65 52 60 70 60
Explanation / Answer
Answer to question 1 :
Forecast for October 13 using naïve method
= Actual for October 6
= 60
FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 13 = 60
Answer to question 2 :
Forecast for October 13
= 0.5 x Actual for October 6 + 0.3 x Actual for September 29 + 0.2 x Actual for September 22
= 0.5 x 60 + 0.3 x 70 + 0.2 x 60
= 30 + 21 + 12
= 63
FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 13 = 63
Answer to question 3:
Forecast for exponential smoothing as following :
Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha) x Ft-1
= 0.8 x At-1 + 0.2 x Ft-1
Ft, Ft-1 = Forecasts for period t and t-1 respectively
At-1 = Actual demand for period t-1
Alpha = Exponential smoothing constant = 0.8
Given, forecast for September 29 = 65
Forecast for October 6
= 0.8 x Actual for September 29 + 0.2 x Forecast for September 29
= 0.8 x 70 + 0.2 x 65
= 56 + 13
= 69
Forecast for October 13
= 0.8 x Actual for October 6 + 0.2 x Forecast for October 6
=0.8 x 60 + 0.2 x 69
= 48 + 13.8
= 61.80 ( 62 rounded to nearest whole number )
FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 13 = 62
FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 13 = 60