QUESTION 4 Information for Problems 4-7. The data in the table below contains th
ID: 435239 • Letter: Q
Question
QUESTION 4 Information for Problems 4-7. The data in the table below contains the actual sales of repular manager of a gas station wants to forecast the sales of the regular uneaded garsolinve for the next can be ordered from the diestributor. She has unleaded gas at Quick Gars in Kent. Leah, the week tweek 5) so the proper numbee of rallons been using the Exponential Smoothing, with a-0.6 to produce the forecast Week Actual sale (gal gallons) 800 750 820 770 What is the sale forecast for week 5? O 785.60 cars O 787.85 cars 0 782.00 cars O 790.80 cars QUESTIONS Calculate the MAD using only weeks 2 to 4 data? MAD-36.83 MAD-35.33 MAD 43.33 MAD-38.67 Stop sharing Proctorio is sharing your screen QUESTION 6
Explanation / Answer
4
Using the exponential smoothing method, the forecasted value for a period is calculated by
alpha*(actual demand for previous period) + (1-alpha)*(forecasted demand for previous period)
Using this, we have the forecast for week 5 as
0.6*770 + 0.4*800 = 782
The forecast for the week 5 is 782 cars
5
MAD stands for mean absolute deviation. For the week 2 to 4 the mean absolute deviations are the difference between actual data and forecasted data (neglecting the negative symbols). They are
50, 50, and 30
The mean of these values are 130/3 = 43.33
The MAD is 43.33
6
MAPD is the mean absolute percentage deviation. This means we need to take the absolute deviation of each period and find their percentage over the actual data. This means the APD for weeks 2 to 4 are
(50/750*100), (50/820*100), and (30/770*100) or,
6.67%, 6.09% and 3.89%
The mean for these values are 5.55
The MAPD is 5.55%
7
Bias in forecasting is calculated by the sum of difference between actual and forecasted value divided by the number of period. For the weeks 2 to 4, the sum of difference between the actual and forecasted value are
(750-800) + (820-770) + (770-800) = -30
The bias is now calculated as -30/3 = -10
The BIAS is -10