Consider the data on new orders for computers and electronic products and the M1
ID: 472567 • Letter: C
Question
Consider the data on new orders for computers and electronic products and the M1 money supply for the years 2011 through 2014.
1/Using the data for computer and electronic products, develop a two-period MA(2), four-period MA(4), and six-period MA(6) moving average forecasts
Year
Month
New Orders for Computers and Electronic Products
M-1 Money Supply
2011
1
19222
1855.6
2011
2
20727
1874.7
2011
3
24893
1892.0
2011
4
19375
1897.8
2011
5
20152
1934.3
2011
6
25075
1947.0
2011
7
18615
2001.5
2011
8
21289
2112.9
2011
9
27014
2126.0
2011
10
22179
2137.4
2011
11
20761
2172.0
2011
12
27818
2168.2
2012
1
19447
2202.3
2012
2
23043
2212.2
2012
3
26734
2228.7
2012
4
21897
2245.3
2012
5
22403
2251.0
2012
6
24942
2262.3
2012
7
19365
2314.6
2012
8
20240
2346.5
2012
9
25478
2383.6
2012
10
20790
2415.5
2012
11
20362
2423.2
2012
12
27841
2457.7
2013
1
17393
2467.6
2013
2
18725
2470.4
2013
3
22919
2474.8
2013
4
19560
2511.0
2013
5
20333
2522.0
2013
6
24619
2517.9
2013
7
18065
2545.6
2013
8
18487
2557.3
2013
9
24877
2578.8
2013
10
20410
2620.2
2013
11
20194
2622.2
2013
12
24955
2654.5
Year
Month
New Orders for Computers and Electronic Products
M-1 Money Supply
2011
1
19222
1855.6
2011
2
20727
1874.7
2011
3
24893
1892.0
2011
4
19375
1897.8
2011
5
20152
1934.3
2011
6
25075
1947.0
2011
7
18615
2001.5
2011
8
21289
2112.9
2011
9
27014
2126.0
2011
10
22179
2137.4
2011
11
20761
2172.0
2011
12
27818
2168.2
2012
1
19447
2202.3
2012
2
23043
2212.2
2012
3
26734
2228.7
2012
4
21897
2245.3
2012
5
22403
2251.0
2012
6
24942
2262.3
2012
7
19365
2314.6
2012
8
20240
2346.5
2012
9
25478
2383.6
2012
10
20790
2415.5
2012
11
20362
2423.2
2012
12
27841
2457.7
2013
1
17393
2467.6
2013
2
18725
2470.4
2013
3
22919
2474.8
2013
4
19560
2511.0
2013
5
20333
2522.0
2013
6
24619
2517.9
2013
7
18065
2545.6
2013
8
18487
2557.3
2013
9
24877
2578.8
2013
10
20410
2620.2
2013
11
20194
2622.2
2013
12
24955
2654.5
Explanation / Answer
All the moving averages are given in the table below:
2 period MA = sum of the latest 2 periods' order of computers and electronics/2
4 period MA = sum of the latest 4 periods' order of computers and electronics/4
6 period MA = sum of the latest 6 periods' order of computers and electronics/6
2 period MA for the 1st 2 periods will become the forecast for month 3 and so on for 4 period and 6 period forecasts.
Year Month New Orders for Computers and Electronic Products 2 period moving total 2 period MA forecast 4 period moving total 4 period MA forecast 6 period moving total 6 period MA forecast 2011 1 19,222.0 2011 2 20,727.0 39,949.0 2011 3 24,893.0 45,620.0 19,974.5 2011 4 19,375.0 44,268.0 22,810.0 84,217.0 2011 5 20,152.0 39,527.0 22,134.0 85,147.0 21,054.3 2011 6 25,075.0 45,227.0 19,763.5 89,495.0 21,286.8 129,444.0 2011 7 18,615.0 43,690.0 22,613.5 83,217.0 22,373.8 128,837.0 21,574.0 2011 8 21,289.0 39,904.0 21,845.0 85,131.0 20,804.3 129,399.0 21,472.8 2011 9 27,014.0 48,303.0 19,952.0 91,993.0 21,282.8 131,520.0 21,566.5 2011 10 22,179.0 49,193.0 24,151.5 89,097.0 22,998.3 134,324.0 21,920.0 2011 11 20,761.0 42,940.0 24,596.5 91,243.0 22,274.3 134,933.0 22,387.3 2011 12 27,818.0 48,579.0 21,470.0 97,772.0 22,810.8 137,676.0 22,488.8 2012 1 19,447.0 47,265.0 24,289.5 90,205.0 24,443.0 138,508.0 22,946.0 2012 2 23,043.0 42,490.0 23,632.5 91,069.0 22,551.3 140,262.0 23,084.7 2012 3 26,734.0 49,777.0 21,245.0 97,042.0 22,767.3 139,982.0 23,377.0 2012 4 21,897.0 48,631.0 24,888.5 91,121.0 24,260.5 139,700.0 23,330.3 2012 5 22,403.0 44,300.0 24,315.5 94,077.0 22,780.3 141,342.0 23,283.3 2012 6 24,942.0 47,345.0 22,150.0 95,976.0 23,519.3 138,466.0 23,557.0 2012 7 19,365.0 44,307.0 23,672.5 88,607.0 23,994.0 138,384.0 23,077.7 2012 8 20,240.0 39,605.0 22,153.5 86,950.0 22,151.8 135,581.0 23,064.0 2012 9 25,478.0 45,718.0 19,802.5 90,025.0 21,737.5 134,325.0 22,596.8 2012 10 20,790.0 46,268.0 22,859.0 85,873.0 22,506.3 133,218.0 22,387.5 2012 11 20,362.0 41,152.0 23,134.0 86,870.0 21,468.3 131,177.0 22,203.0 2012 12 27,841.0 48,203.0 20,576.0 94,471.0 21,717.5 134,076.0 21,862.8 2013 1 17,393.0 45,234.0 24,101.5 86,386.0 23,617.8 132,104.0 22,346.0 2013 2 18,725.0 36,118.0 22,617.0 84,321.0 21,596.5 130,589.0 22,017.3 2013 3 22,919.0 41,644.0 18,059.0 86,878.0 21,080.3 128,030.0 21,764.8 2013 4 19,560.0 42,479.0 20,822.0 78,597.0 21,719.5 126,800.0 21,338.3 2013 5 20,333.0 39,893.0 21,239.5 81,537.0 19,649.3 126,771.0 21,133.3 2013 6 24,619.0 44,952.0 19,946.5 87,431.0 20,384.3 123,549.0 21,128.5 2013 7 18,065.0 42,684.0 22,476.0 82,577.0 21,857.8 124,221.0 20,591.5 2013 8 18,487.0 36,552.0 21,342.0 81,504.0 20,644.3 123,983.0 20,703.5 2013 9 24,877.0 43,364.0 18,276.0 86,048.0 20,376.0 125,941.0 20,663.8 2013 10 20,410.0 45,287.0 21,682.0 81,839.0 21,512.0 126,791.0 20,990.2 2013 11 20,194.0 40,604.0 22,643.5 83,968.0 20,459.8 126,652.0 21,131.8 2013 12 24,955.0 45,149.0 20,302.0 90,436.0 20,992.0 126,988.0 21,108.7 2014 1 22,574.5 22,609.0 21,164.7